British Columbia Housing Market Outlook 2013
Housing starts are forecast to rise modestly in 2013 as the economy and job growth improve relative to the 2012 outlook. As a result, total housing starts are expected to reach 29,100 units in 2013, up slightly from a projected 28,500 units in 2012.
Buyersâ€™ market conditions in theÂ existing home market emergedÂ in mid-2012 and are expected toÂ continue into early 2013. However,Â balanced markets are expected toÂ return by mid-2013.
Economic growth is forecast to be slightly stronger in 2013 than in 2012, reflecting increased nonresidential investment and consumer spending partly offset by a weaker global outlook. Domestic factors in British Columbia, including populationÂ growth and continued low mortgage interest rates, remain supportive ofÂ the housing market. Labour marketÂ developments also point to a pickupÂ in housing demand in 2013. In the firstÂ eight months of 2012, job growth inÂ British Columbia was second only toÂ Alberta. Job gains were concentratedÂ in full-time employment, which wasÂ up 3.2 per cent compared to the firstÂ eight months of 2011.
Population growth due to individuals moving to the province from other countries is a key source of housing demand. Net migration is forecast to increase in 2013, consistent with GDP and employment growth that is expected to be above the national average. This will add to housingÂ demand, particularly in Vancouver.
Single Starts: Single-detached home starts are expected to rise to 9,400 units in 2013 from an expected levelÂ of 8,500 in 2012.
Multiple Starts: The level of multipleÂ housing starts, including apartments,Â semi-detached and row homes isÂ forecast to edge lower in the finalÂ quarter of 2012 and first quarterÂ of 2013, before stabilizing over theÂ remainder of the forecast period. ForÂ 2012 as a whole, multiple starts areÂ forecast to rise to 20,000 units thenÂ fall slightly in 2013 to 19,700 units.
Resales: Existing MLSÂ® home sales are forecast to increase in 2013 to 77,700 sales following a projected 8.8 per cent annual decline in 2012 to 70,000 sales. The number of resale transactions is forecast to increase in 2013, in line with strengthening employment and population growth.
Sales are expected to continue to shift to more modestly priced homes, including apartment condominiums. Provincial resale markets are forecast to move from buyersâ€™ to balancedÂ conditions by mid-2013, although localÂ housing market conditions will vary.
Prices: The average annual existingÂ MLSÂ® home price, is expected to register a decline in 2012 and a slight decline in 2013. This is expected to reflect compositional shifts in sales,Â as condominiums are expected to comprise a larger share of existingÂ home sales over the forecast horizon. In the larger urban centres, the trendÂ of fewer luxury home sales and anÂ increase in sales of more modestlyÂ priced homes is expected to continue.Â As well, the higher-priced VancouverÂ home market is forecast to make upÂ a smaller share of provincial homeÂ sales in 2013. In 2012, average existingÂ home prices are forecast to beÂ $517,400. Prices in 2013 will remainÂ relatively stable at $515,000 as resaleÂ activity picks up.
If you have any real estate questions or if you are thinking of buying or selling your home, please contactÂ James Louie Chung, Greater Vancouver REALTORÂ® â€” Real Estate AgentÂ atÂ [email protected]Â or call / text ( 6 0 4 ) 7 1 9 â€” 6 3 2 8 today!