Housing Activity to Stabilize in 2010-2011
Housing starts will moderate
After a strong finish to 2009, and a robust first quarter of 2010, housing starts have moderated. Starts are predicted to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 164,123 units by the fourth quarter of 2010. Given the degree of economic uncertainty, we have considered an array of economic scenarios. We expect starts to be between 176,700 and 194,700 units in 2010 and between 148,000 and 202,300 units in 2011. CMHC’s point forecast for housing starts is 186,200 units in 2010 then declining to 174,800 units in 2011.
MLS® will decline next year
Existing home sales through the Multiple Listings Service® (MLS®) are now slowing. We have generated a range of forecasts for MLS® sales that reflect different economic scenarios. For 2010, we forecast that MLS® sales will be between 423,800 and 455,900 units. In 2011, MLS® sales will be between 390,600 and 483,700 units. CMHC’s point forecast is 440,300 MLS® sales this year and 438,400 next year, compared to 464,730 units sold in 2009.